UDA, ODM Dominate November By-Elections as Political Alignments Shift Ahead of 2027

By : Mweru Mbugua

The November 27, 2025 by-elections have emerged as a key indicator of Kenya’s political direction heading into 2027, with major parties testing their influence across the country

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) conducted 24 by-elections: six for Members of the National Assembly, one Senatorial seat, and 17 MCA positions

In the parliamentary and senatorial contests, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) won all four seats where it fielded candidates. Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) also secured all three MP seats it contested

In the 17 ward races, UDA took 7 seats, DCP won 3, UPA 2, Wiper 1, ODM 1, FORD–Kenya 1, PDP 1, while one seat went to an independent candidate

With UDA and ODM jointly bagging 16 out of 24 seats, the broad-based partners accounted for a commanding 66.6% of the wins putting pressure on the united opposition to rethink its strategy

DCP, associated with Deputy Prime Cabinet Secretary Rigathi Gachagua, managed only three MCA victories, while DAP-K under Eugene Wamalwa and George Natembeya performed poorly, raising concerns over the party’s influence

In contrast, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former CS Fred Matiang’i posted strong results in their regions, bolstering their positions within the opposition

Regionally, ODM maintained dominance in Nyanza and the Coast, strengthening the hands of leaders like Gladys Wanga and Abdulswamad Nassir amid internal succession battles

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Victories in Magarini, Kasipul and Ugunja also provided political reassurance to ODM’s top figures serving in government

However, ODM’s loss in Kariobangi North cast doubt on Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s political sway after a DCP candidate won despite his active campaigning

Meanwhile, Gachagua faces scrutiny after a UDA win in Mbeere North where he had personally led campaigns raised questions about his grip on Mt. Kenya politics. Deputy President Kithure Kindiki scored a significant boost by delivering the seat

In Western Kenya, UDA’s success in Malava and Kabuchai dealt a blow to Natembeya and Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, signalling challenges for their regional influence

The loss of Seth Panyako in Malava further underscored shifting alliances as leaders like Musalia Mudavadi, Francis Atwoli and Farouk Kibet continued pushing the region towards the ruling coalition

The November by-elections have therefore reshaped the political map, revealing new strengths, emerging weaknesses, and early battles in the long march toward the 2027 General Election