Ugandan Opposition Decries ‘Military State’ as Tense Election Nears

By : Mweru Mbugua

Uganda’s opposition has accused President Yoweri Museveni’s government of running a “military state” as the country heads into a high-stakes general election this week, amid reports of arrests, violence and widespread intimidation

Under gloomy skies on Sunday, opposition supporters gathered for prayers at the home of detained veteran politician Kizza Besigye in Kampala

The mood was both defiant and sombre, reflecting growing fears about the safety of dissenting voices ahead of Thursday’s vote

Kampala Mayor Erias Lukwago told the gathering that the election represented a direct confrontation between ordinary Ugandans and President Museveni, who is widely expected to extend his four-decade rule

“Every one of you falls into one of two categories: political prisoners or potential political prisoners,” Lukwago said

Museveni, 81, rose to power as a rebel leader in the 1980s and has since maintained tight control over the state and security apparatus

Rights groups and opposition figures accuse his administration of systematic repression, including arrests, abductions and the violent dispersal of rallies

The latest campaign period has seen hundreds of opposition supporters detained and at least one person killed. Police have defended their actions, saying they are responding to “hooliganism”

Leading opposition candidate Bobi Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, has described the campaign as a “war.” Often seen wearing a flak jacket, Wine has previously been arrested and says he was tortured while in military custody

Besigye, the only other major opposition figure, was allegedly kidnapped in Kenya in 2024 and secretly transferred to a Ugandan military prison, where he faces treason charges

His wife, UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima, hosted the prayer meeting and said Uganda’s democracy was largely cosmetic

“We have only a thin veneer of democracy,” Byanyima said. “In reality, we are a military state, with total capture of institutions by the individual who wields military power  President Museveni.”

Researchers say the security forces are rarely neutral during elections. Jude Kagoro, a University of Bremen researcher who has studied African policing for over a decade, noted that many officers see it as their duty to protect the incumbent and often use force against opposition supporters without explicit orders

He added that the government has also worked to weaken opposition movements through infiltration and division, including the use of informal networks known as “ghetto structures,” where youths in opposition strongholds are recruited to disrupt activities and spy for security agencies

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Authorities were caught off guard by Bobi Wine’s sudden rise ahead of the 2021 election, when his appeal to urban youth sparked a harsh and violent response. Analysts say the state is now far more prepared to contain dissent

“For the last four years, the regime has been building an infrastructure designed to withstand pressure from the opposition,” Kagoro said

As election day approaches, voters have been advised to cast their ballots and return home immediately, a move opposition leaders say is meant to discourage turnout

“The regime wants people to be so afraid that they don’t come out to vote,” said David Lewis Rubongoya, secretary-general of Wine’s National Unity Platform

Opposition groups and rights organisations report a rise in arrests and enforced disappearances, a tactic they say is increasingly common across East Africa. Analysts warn that the climate of fear has made grassroots mobilisation nearly impossible

“The cost of engaging in opposition politics has become extremely high,” said Kristof Titeca, a Uganda expert based at Antwerp University

“What remains is only a small core of supporters. A broad grassroots opposition is simply too dangerous”